As anticipation builds for autumn, the old farmer’s almanac fall weather forecast for 2026 has been released, giving Americans an early look at what September and October could bring. According to the latest seasonal outlook, much of the United States is expected to experience a generally drier-than-average fall, while temperatures will vary significantly depending on the region. Although long-range forecasts should be viewed as guidance rather than certainty, the annual forecast remains one of the most talked-about seasonal outlooks every year.
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║ – The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts a generally drier-than-average fall across much of the U.S. ║
║ – Cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected along the East Coast and Pacific Coast. ║
║ – Warmer weather is forecast across much of the nation’s interior. ║
║ – Texas, parts of the Rockies, southern Florida, and portions of New England may receive above-average rainfall. ║
║ – Regional forecasts highlight notable differences in temperature and precipitation across the country. ║
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Table of Contents
What Does the Old Farmer’s Almanac Predict for Fall 2026?
Overall, the forecast points toward:
- Drier-than-average conditions across much of the United States
- Cooler temperatures across many eastern states and the Pacific Coast
- Warmer-than-normal weather across the Plains, Heartland, and parts of the Deep South
- Wetter conditions in select regions, including Texas, portions of the Rockies, southern Florida, and parts of the Northeast
Unlike daily forecasts, these seasonal predictions focus on overall trends for September and October rather than individual storms or cold fronts.
National Temperature Outlook
One of the biggest themes this year is the contrast between coastal and interior regions.
Cooler Areas
The Almanac expects below-average temperatures across:
- Much of the Northeast
- Atlantic Coast
- Appalachians
- Pacific Northwest
- Pacific Coast
- Florida
- Parts of the Midwest
Most areas are expected to average around 1–2 degrees below normal during September and October.
Warmer Areas
Warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast for:
- Northern Plains
- High Plains
- Heartland
- Southern Plains
- Interior Southwest
- Deep South during October
The warmer conditions are generally expected to be modest rather than extreme.
National Rainfall Outlook
Rainfall is expected to be one of the biggest stories this autumn.
The forecast indicates:
- Below-average rainfall across much of the country
- Wetter conditions along parts of the West Coast
- Increased rainfall across northern Texas and Oklahoma
- Above-average precipitation in parts of the Rockies
- Slightly wetter conditions across southern Florida
- Some sections of New England expected to receive more rain than normal
The Southeast may experience one of its driest autumns in recent years, with some locations forecast to receive several inches less rainfall than average.
Regional Forecast Breakdown
Northeast
Residents across the Northeast can expect:
- Cooler-than-average temperatures
- Wetter conditions than normal
- Good opportunities for colorful fall foliage if weather patterns develop as forecast
Atlantic Corridor
Areas stretching along the Mid-Atlantic are expected to see:
- Cooler weather
- Slightly drier conditions
- Comfortable autumn temperatures during September and October
Appalachians
The mountain region is forecast to experience:
- Cooler temperatures
- Reduced rainfall
- Pleasant hiking conditions if the forecast verifies
Southeast
The Southeast outlook includes:
- Slightly cooler temperatures
- Noticeably drier weather
- Lower rainfall totals compared to historical averages
Florida
Florida’s forecast differs between north and south.
Northern Florida is expected to be:
- Cooler
- Drier
Southern Florida may experience:
- Cooler temperatures
- Slightly wetter conditions
Ohio Valley
The region is forecast to experience:
- Cool September temperatures
- Near-normal October temperatures
- Generally below-average rainfall
Great Lakes
The Lower Lakes region is expected to have:
- A cool September
- Near-normal October temperatures
- Rainfall close to seasonal averages before becoming slightly drier later.
Upper Midwest
Forecast highlights include:
- Cooler September weather
- Slightly warmer October
- Increased rainfall during October
Heartland
The central United States is expected to experience:
- Slightly warmer conditions overall
- Dry September
- Wetter October
Texas and Oklahoma
One of the wetter areas this fall may be northern Texas and Oklahoma.
Forecast highlights include:
- Above-average rainfall
- Slightly cooler temperatures across northern sections
- Warmer conditions across southern Texas
High Plains
Forecast conditions include:
- Warmer-than-average temperatures
- Dry weather throughout much of fall
Intermountain West
Residents can expect:
- Cooler conditions in northern sections
- Warmer temperatures farther south
- Slightly above-average precipitation
Desert Southwest
Forecast highlights:
- Warm September
- Cooler October
- Continued dry conditions
Pacific Northwest
One of the wetter regions this fall is expected to be the Pacific Northwest.
The forecast includes:
- Cooler temperatures
- Above-average rainfall
- A wet start to autumn
Pacific Southwest
Expected conditions include:
- Near-average September temperatures
- Slightly cooler October
- Mixed rainfall depending on location
Why Do People Still Follow the Old Farmer’s Almanac?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has published long-range weather forecasts for generations and remains popular with gardeners, farmers, outdoor enthusiasts, and travelers.
Its forecasting approach combines:
- Solar activity
- Climatology
- Historical weather patterns
- Meteorological analysis
Many readers use the publication as an early planning tool for:
- Gardening
- Harvest preparation
- Fall travel
- Outdoor festivals
- Hunting
- Camping
- Leaf-peeping vacations
How Accurate Are Long-Range Forecasts?
Seasonal weather forecasts are designed to identify broad climate trends rather than predict exact daily weather.
Meteorologists generally recommend using long-range forecasts as guidance instead of expecting precise day-by-day accuracy.
As autumn approaches, shorter-term forecasts issued by local National Weather Service offices provide much greater detail regarding storms, cold fronts, rainfall, and temperature swings.
How This Fall Could Affect Travel and Outdoor Activities
If the forecast proves accurate, many parts of the country could enjoy excellent outdoor conditions.
Potential impacts include:
- Comfortable hiking weather in cooler regions
- Favorable conditions for fall festivals
- Good opportunities for apple picking and pumpkin patches
- Improved harvest conditions in many agricultural areas due to drier weather
- Wet travel conditions possible in the Pacific Northwest and parts of Texas
Peak fall foliage will still depend on local rainfall, temperature changes, and timing of early cold fronts.
Comparison With Other Seasonal Outlooks
While the Old Farmer’s Almanac offers one of the earliest fall outlooks available, government seasonal outlooks sometimes differ in important ways.
For example, some official climate outlooks indicate a greater likelihood of above-average temperatures across parts of the eastern United States, while the Almanac projects cooler conditions in many of those same areas. These differences reflect the varying forecasting methods used by each organization.
Because seasonal forecasting remains complex, weather conditions can evolve significantly as new atmospheric data becomes available throughout late summer and early fall.
Final Thoughts
The 2026 fall forecast paints a picture of a generally dry autumn across much of America, with cooler temperatures hugging both coasts and warmer conditions dominating many inland states. Regions including Texas, the Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Northeast could see above-average rainfall, while much of the Southeast may experience a notably dry season.
As always, seasonal outlooks provide an early glimpse of expected weather patterns rather than exact forecasts, making it wise to check local forecasts as fall approaches.
What do you think about this year’s forecast? Share your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned for more weather updates throughout the season!
