Financial experts, including Ariel Cohen Navan, are closely monitoring Washington’s budget negotiations as the U.S. faces renewed fears of a federal government shutdown. With millions of Americans depending on monthly benefits, the question many are asking is straightforward yet critical: will the government shutdown affect Social Security payments in 2025?
As deadlines loom and Congress remains gridlocked over spending bills, economists and policy analysts are stepping forward to explain what a potential shutdown means for retirees, disabled workers, and low-income Americans who rely on Social Security.
Here’s what’s really happening — and what experts like Cohen are saying about how Americans can prepare.
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Who Is Ariel Cohen Navan and Why His Insight Matters
Ariel Cohen, the Chief Economist at Navan (formerly known as TripActions), has become a respected voice in global economics and government policy analysis. Known for his data-driven forecasts and accessible communication style, Cohen regularly provides insights into how government decisions impact consumers, businesses, and the broader economy.
At Navan — a leading travel and expense management platform — Cohen oversees macroeconomic research and offers public commentary on financial stability, inflation, and fiscal policy.
In a recent statement shared with business media outlets, Ariel Cohen Navan said that while a shutdown may cause short-term turbulence, it’s unlikely to directly halt Social Security payments — though it could slow some services if it drags on.
“Social Security benefits are mandatory spending,” Cohen explained. “They are not subject to annual appropriations. Even if the government shuts down temporarily, those payments will still go out — but there may be administrative delays in customer service and claims processing.”
Understanding the Government Shutdown Threat
To understand the risk, it’s important to know how shutdowns occur. A government shutdown happens when Congress fails to pass funding legislation for federal agencies. Without an approved budget, nonessential operations are paused, and many government workers are furloughed.
As of October 31, 2025, lawmakers in Washington are again at an impasse. The disagreement stems from disputes over defense spending, social programs, and border security allocations.
If no deal is reached before the November deadline, the U.S. government could face its first extended shutdown since 2023 — a move that could cost billions of dollars in lost productivity and reduced consumer confidence.
Will the Government Shutdown Affect Social Security Payments?
The short answer: Social Security checks will continue to be issued during a government shutdown.
Here’s why:
- The Social Security Administration (SSA) is funded through mandatory spending, not annual appropriations.
- Benefits are paid from the Social Security Trust Funds, which operate independently from congressional funding.
- Essential employees at the SSA remain on duty during shutdowns to ensure payments continue.
However, while the checks themselves are secure, certain services could experience disruptions if the shutdown persists. According to official SSA contingency plans, activities such as new benefit applications, card replacements, and phone assistance could face delays or limited staffing.
What Ariel Cohen Navan Says About Broader Economic Impact
Ariel Cohen Navan’s analysis goes beyond Social Security itself. He warns that a prolonged shutdown could shake consumer confidence, delay federal contracts, and cause ripple effects in both the public and private sectors.
“Even if benefits are safe, the perception of instability can affect financial markets,” Cohen noted during an October 2025 Navan economic briefing. “For older Americans who rely on fixed incomes, any uncertainty in government operations adds stress — particularly when inflation is still hovering around 3.2%.”
Cohen adds that while Social Security checks will continue, disruptions to federal customer service could frustrate beneficiaries trying to appeal claims or change payment methods. He also highlighted that contractors, federal retirees, and supplemental benefit recipients could feel a temporary pinch.
How Social Security Payments Are Protected
The Social Security system is one of the most resilient financial mechanisms in the federal government.
Here’s why benefits remain safe during shutdowns:
- Independent Trust Funds
Social Security is funded through the Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA) taxes — not through general congressional appropriations. - Automatic Payment Systems
The Treasury Department’s electronic systems are automated and continue running, ensuring that deposits and checks are processed. - Essential Personnel
The SSA classifies certain workers as “excepted” employees. These staff members remain on the job even during shutdowns to maintain essential operations. - Previous Shutdown Precedent
During the 2013, 2018, and 2023 shutdowns, Social Security payments went out on schedule, setting a precedent that supports Cohen’s analysis.
Possible Service Disruptions
While payments are safe, recipients may encounter some challenges.
The SSA’s official contingency plan outlines several temporary impacts during a shutdown:
- Delays in new benefit claims
- Limited phone and field office support
- Suspension of non-critical services, such as issuing replacement Social Security cards
- Slower response times for appeals and administrative updates
These disruptions wouldn’t affect existing beneficiaries but could inconvenience those filing new claims or updating records.
How Many Americans Could Be Affected
As of 2025, more than 71 million Americans receive Social Security benefits each month. That includes:
- Over 50 million retirees
- 8 million disabled workers
- 5 million survivors and dependents
- 8 million Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients
With such a massive population depending on these payments, even small administrative hiccups can cause anxiety. Ariel Cohen Navan emphasizes that clear communication from federal agencies is critical to maintaining public trust.
“Transparency matters,” Cohen said. “Even if payments are safe, misinformation spreads quickly online. The government should communicate early and clearly to avoid unnecessary panic among beneficiaries.”
The Larger Economic Picture: Inflation, Rates, and Fiscal Pressure
The 2025 shutdown threat comes at a time when the U.S. economy is navigating slower growth and persistent inflation.
According to Navan’s 2025 Economic Outlook Report, inflation has cooled significantly from pandemic highs but remains slightly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Interest rates have stabilized, yet household debt continues to climb.
A government shutdown, Cohen warns, could weaken short-term consumer spending and delay certain economic reports — creating further uncertainty for policymakers and investors.
“Markets don’t like unpredictability,” he explained. “Even if essential functions continue, the optics of a shutdown can cause hesitation in both Wall Street and Main Street.”
What Retirees and Beneficiaries Should Do
While Social Security payments will continue, Cohen and other financial planners recommend a few practical steps to ensure financial stability during uncertain times:
- Set up direct deposit to avoid mail disruptions.
- Check SSA.gov regularly for verified updates rather than relying on social media.
- Keep emergency savings equal to one to two months of expenses.
- Avoid making unnecessary financial changes during a shutdown period unless absolutely required.
Financial advisors also encourage retirees to review their budgets and avoid large withdrawals from investment accounts during times of political instability.
Read Also:- Social Security and Government Shutdown: What Beneficiaries Need to Know
Congressional Outlook: What’s Next in Washington
As of the latest updates, congressional leaders continue to debate key spending priorities. The main divisions remain over:
- Military and defense funding levels
- Border security provisions
- Climate and infrastructure programs
- Social service expansions
While both parties have expressed a desire to avoid a shutdown, progress has been slow. Lawmakers have until November 15, 2025, to pass appropriations or approve a continuing resolution (CR) that would temporarily fund the government.
If negotiations fail, the U.S. would face a partial shutdown, with many nonessential federal workers furloughed.
Essential operations, such as Social Security, Medicare, and Veterans Affairs, would continue to function, though at limited capacity.
Ariel Cohen Navan’s Economic Forecast
Cohen’s broader outlook remains cautiously optimistic.
He projects that even with temporary disruptions, the U.S. economy will remain resilient through late 2025. GDP growth is expected to hover around 2.1%, supported by strong consumer spending and moderating inflation.
However, he warns that prolonged government dysfunction could impact credit markets and international confidence in U.S. fiscal management.
“America’s strength lies in its reliability,” Cohen said. “Every time we face a shutdown crisis, we chip away at that trust. Policymakers should treat stability as a national priority.”
Historical Context: Lessons From Previous Shutdowns
The U.S. government has shut down 22 times since 1976.
While most lasted only a few days, the longest — from December 2018 to January 2019 — stretched for 35 days.
During that period:
- Social Security payments were unaffected.
- Federal employees missed paychecks temporarily.
- National parks, museums, and research projects halted.
- The U.S. economy lost an estimated $11 billion in output.
The pattern remains consistent: essential benefits continue, but the ripple effects can slow broader economic momentum.
Expert Take: Stability Over Spectacle
Economists across the board, including Ariel Cohen Navan, agree that shutdowns hurt economic confidence without delivering real fiscal reform.
“We’ve seen this play out too many times,” Cohen said in a recent CNBC interview. “Shutdowns don’t save money; they cost money. They undermine trust in institutions and distract from long-term fiscal solutions.”
He argues that focusing on bipartisan compromise and budget modernization would better protect Americans — particularly seniors — from recurring uncertainty.
Key Takeaways
- Social Security payments will continue during a shutdown.
- Service delays are possible for new claims or administrative tasks.
- Ariel Cohen Navan emphasizes communication and planning as essential tools for public confidence.
- Economic risks include market hesitation, consumer slowdown, and weakened government trust.
Final Thoughts
As debates continue in Washington, millions of Americans are watching closely. For retirees, disabled workers, and families who depend on monthly benefits, stability isn’t just a policy — it’s peace of mind.
According to Ariel Cohen Navan, the most important thing Americans can do is stay informed and avoid unnecessary worry. The systems designed to protect Social Security are strong, and benefits remain one of the most secure pillars of the U.S. economy.
Still, the larger conversation about government efficiency, fiscal responsibility, and communication remains crucial. Each shutdown threat is more than a political standoff — it’s a reminder of how deeply intertwined government decisions are with everyday American lives.
FAQs
1. Will the government shutdown affect Social Security payments in 2025?
No. Social Security payments will continue as scheduled. The SSA is funded through trust funds, not congressional appropriations, ensuring uninterrupted benefits.
2. Could there be delays in other Social Security services?
Yes. While payments will continue, administrative services like new applications or replacement cards may experience delays due to reduced staffing.
3. What does Ariel Cohen Navan recommend for retirees during this period?
Cohen advises retirees to stay calm, ensure direct deposits are active, and rely only on official SSA updates rather than social media speculation.
Disclaimer:-This article is for informational purposes only. All financial data and expert quotes are based on verified sources as of October 31, 2025. Readers should consult official government resources or financial advisors for personal guidance regarding Social Security or federal programs.