The latest from Nate Silver Trump approval data shows former President Donald Trump’s national approval rating has dropped to a second-term low, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction among voters across the United States. As of November 26, 2025, aggregated polling places his approval at roughly 41.2%, with disapproval at about 55.9%.
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Where things stand now
According to the most recent average from Silver Bulletin — the polling-average tracker maintained by Nate Silver — Trump’s net approval rating now stands at about –14 percentage points. This reflects a steep decline from earlier in his second term, when approval hovered near the mid-40s. His disapproval rate now exceeds the level seen at a comparable time in his first presidency.
Beyond the headline number:
- On economic issues, Trump’s net approval recently sank below –20.
- On inflation and cost-of-living concerns, his net approval dropped even further, into the –30s.
These numbers show a striking shift in voter sentiment since January, when his term began with a more favorable view among many Americans.
What’s driving the drop
Several factors appear to be contributing to the slump in approval:
- Economic strain and inflation — Many voters express frustration over rising prices, stagnant real incomes, and a sense that daily expenses remain out of reach. In recent polls, only a small minority endorse the administration’s handling of the cost of living.
- Controversies and public fatigue — Issues such as the handling of sensitive investigations and high-profile political controversies have weighed on public confidence.
- Post-shutdown backlash — The government shutdown earlier this fall seems to have amplified dissatisfaction, particularly among independents and moderate voters.
According to Silver, these pressures — especially economic anxiety and general public fatigue — are outweighing any potential rebound from policy successes or administration messaging.
Comparing to past peaks and first term lows
When he began his second term, Trump’s approval hovered around the mid-40s. Over the months, support gradually eroded. By late 2025, his approval rate aligns closely with, or is slightly worse than, his lowest periods from his first presidency.
Unlike past moments of volatility, this slump doesn’t look tied to a single scandal or event. Instead, it reflects long-term wear on public sentiment.
Historically, presidents in their second terms often see downward pressure on approval. But the speed and depth of this drop stand out — hitting a second-term low faster than many predecessors.
How different polling aggregates compare
While individual polls vary, nearly every major aggregator now shows Trump underwater:
| Poll Aggregator / Tracker | Approx. Approval | Approx. Disapproval | Net Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silver Bulletin | ~41–42% | ~55–56% | –14 to –15 pts |
| RealClearPolitics (RCP) Avg | ~42–43% | ~55–56% | –12 to –13 pts |
| Other Combined Aggregates | 39–42% | 55–57% | –13 to –17 pts |
The variations stem from differences in methodology, weighting of polls, and population sampled (likely voters vs. all adults). Still, the downward direction remains consistent across all.
What this means for 2026 midterm politics
With approval ratings this low, signals suggest potential vulnerabilities for Trump-aligned candidates and the broader Republican agenda ahead of the 2026 midterms. Historically, presidents with similar approval scores have seen their parties lose ground in Congress.
A few implications:
- Candidates in swing or purple districts may face headwinds tied to national discontent over economic conditions.
- Republican incumbents may feel pressure to distance themselves from controversial decisions to avoid dragging down their own campaigns.
- Democrats and independents could gain leverage — especially on issues tied to cost of living, inflation, and government performance.
In short, the current figures may reshape campaign strategies for both parties in the coming election cycle.
Why this slump matters beyond politics
Beyond seat counts and elections, approval ratings serve as a barometer for national mood and public trust. The declining numbers suggest:
- Many Americans remain unconvinced by the administration’s handling of economic and social issues.
- For average households facing inflation and higher costs, confidence in leadership is eroding.
- Public patience with partisanship, repeated controversies, and unmet promises appears to be diminishing.
This environment can affect civic engagement, consumer behavior, and long-term views of governance — not just voting outcomes.
Can approval bounce back? What to watch
Historically, presidents have recovered from low approval ratings. Some factors that might shift public opinion again include:
- A sudden uptick in economic performance — such as better jobs data or easing inflation
- Major legislative wins that address popular issues like healthcare, housing, or inflation relief
- Political or cultural events that reshape voter priorities and shift public perception
However, given the multiple challenges stacked against the administration — from economic concerns to political controversies — any rebound may be slow and limited.
For now, the numbers captured by Nate Silver Trump approval tracking suggest the administration faces a season of discontent, and many Americans remain skeptical of its direction.
What are your thoughts? Do you believe these approval numbers reflect what’s happening on the ground? Share your perspective in the comments below.