As of October 28, 2025, the powerful and catastrophic Hurricane Melissa has been officially classified as a Category 5 storm, and it is now dangerously close to Jamaica. This makes the question of what part of Jamaica will Melissa hit a matter of life and death for residents, travelers, and officials preparing for the storm’s landfall.
Current data shows that the hurricane’s center is positioned southwest of the island, heading slowly toward Jamaica’s southern and southwestern coasts. All forecasts indicate that the most severe impact will strike Westmoreland, St. Elizabeth, Manchester, and Clarendon — parishes that are directly in Melissa’s path.
Table of Contents
Storm Path & Landfall Location
Meteorological experts confirm that Hurricane Melissa continues to intensify as it approaches the island. The system is currently moving northeast at just 3 to 5 mph, an extremely slow pace that will subject Jamaica to prolonged high winds, torrential rains, and a dangerous storm surge.
The eye of the hurricane is projected to come ashore somewhere along Jamaica’s southern coast, possibly near the border between St. Elizabeth and Manchester, though Westmoreland and Clarendon are also expected to feel the full force of its eyewall.
Breaking down the risk by parish:
- Westmoreland: The southwesternmost parish will likely face the first impact of Hurricane Melissa. Heavy storm surges and violent winds will threaten Negril and other coastal areas, with wave heights potentially exceeding 20 feet.
- St. Elizabeth: Flat and low-lying areas near the coast — including Black River and Treasure Beach — are under a severe storm surge warning. Flooding could reach unprecedented levels.
- Manchester: With both coastal and mountainous terrain, Manchester faces a dual threat of flash floods and landslides. Towns like Mandeville may experience extensive damage due to fallen trees and blocked roads.
- Clarendon: The southern edge of Clarendon is in the path of the hurricane’s strongest winds. Power outages and flooding are expected to be widespread.
Why the South and Southwest Are the Most Vulnerable
There are several reasons why Jamaica’s south and southwest will bear the brunt of Hurricane Melissa’s impact:
- Direct Track: The hurricane’s current position and projected trajectory are aligned directly with the island’s southern coastline.
- Geographical Exposure: The southern coast faces open Caribbean waters without extensive natural barriers, allowing for large storm surges.
- Terrain Elevation: The area features a mix of coastal plains and steep inland hills. Heavy rainfall will rush down slopes, amplifying flooding and landslide risks.
- Slow Forward Motion: Because Melissa is moving slowly, regions under its influence will experience destructive winds and rainfall for an extended period — possibly 12 hours or more.
All these factors combine to make Jamaica’s southern belt — from Westmoreland through St. Elizabeth to Clarendon — the most exposed and dangerous zone.
Expected Impacts Across the Affected Parishes
Residents in the projected impact areas should prepare for historic and potentially devastating conditions.
Winds and Storm Intensity
Melissa’s sustained winds are near 175 mph, with gusts topping 190 mph in some areas. These speeds are capable of destroying even well-built structures, snapping trees in half, and uprooting utility poles. Residents should expect widespread roof damage, downed power lines, and blocked roadways.
Rainfall and Flooding
Forecasts estimate 15 to 30 inches of rain across southern Jamaica, with mountainous regions possibly receiving up to 40 inches. Rivers like the Black River and Milk River are at high risk of overflowing, potentially submerging entire communities.
Storm Surge and Coastal Inundation
The most dangerous aspect of Hurricane Melissa could be its storm surge. Coastal areas along the south — especially in St. Elizabeth and Westmoreland — may experience surge heights between 9 and 13 feet. Combined with high tides, this could lead to catastrophic coastal flooding and severe erosion.
Landslides and Secondary Hazards
The interior hills of Manchester and Clarendon will be at high risk for landslides due to the heavy rain. Mudslides could block major highways, including the A2 and A3 routes, further isolating affected areas.
Infrastructure and Power Loss
Expect extended power outages, communication breakdowns, and transportation disruptions. The storm’s ferocity may damage major roads and bridges, hampering rescue and relief efforts in the immediate aftermath.
Government Response and Emergency Preparations
The Jamaican government has moved swiftly to prepare for Hurricane Melissa’s arrival, implementing emergency measures across the country.
- Evacuations: Mandatory evacuation orders are in effect for low-lying coastal towns and flood-prone areas in all southern parishes.
- Shelters: Over 800 shelters have been activated nationwide, with priority given to inland facilities and schools built to withstand hurricane-force winds.
- Transportation Shutdown: All airports, seaports, and public transport systems are currently suspended until further notice.
- Curfew and Safety Orders: A national curfew has been imposed to ensure public safety and keep residents off the streets during the storm.
- Emergency Resources: The government has distributed fuel, food, and medical supplies to emergency centers in Mandeville, Black River, and May Pen.
Authorities are urging all residents, especially those in southern coastal communities, to stay indoors and avoid any attempt to travel during the storm.
Impact on U.S. Tourists and Travelers
For American travelers currently in Jamaica, this storm poses serious challenges. Most resorts on the south coast — including areas near Negril, Treasure Beach, and Alligator Pond — have evacuated guests to reinforced shelters inland.
The U.S. Embassy in Kingston has issued alerts advising citizens to follow local evacuation orders, remain indoors during the storm, and stay in contact through official embassy channels.
While the storm poses no immediate threat to the continental United States, its ripple effects will be felt in travel delays, supply chain disruptions, and potential humanitarian missions following Jamaica’s landfall impact.
Timeline of Key Events
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | Hurricane Melissa forms and strengthens rapidly in the Caribbean Sea. |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Storm reaches Category 4; Jamaican authorities issue early evacuation alerts. |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Melissa intensifies to Category 5 as it moves closer to the island. |
| Oct 28, 2025 (Morning) | Hurricane-force winds begin reaching Jamaica’s south coast. |
| Oct 28, 2025 (Afternoon) | Eye of the storm expected to make landfall near St. Elizabeth or Manchester. |
| Oct 29, 2025 (Morning) | Melissa exits the north coast of Jamaica, heading toward eastern Cuba and the Bahamas. |
Why Hurricane Melissa Is a Historic Threat
Meteorologists note that Category 5 landfalls in Jamaica are exceptionally rare. The combination of extreme wind speeds, storm surge, and slow movement makes Melissa potentially one of the most destructive storms in the island’s recorded history.
The storm’s slow forward motion means areas in the south will endure hurricane-force conditions for half a day or longer, unlike faster-moving systems that pass through in a few hours. Additionally, warm sea-surface temperatures and low wind shear have fueled Melissa’s rapid intensification — a pattern increasingly linked to modern climate trends.
Revisiting the Key Question: What Part of Jamaica Will Melissa Hit?
When it comes to answering what part of Jamaica will Melissa hit, the conclusion is clear and definitive:
Hurricane Melissa will make landfall along Jamaica’s southern and southwestern coast, directly impacting Westmoreland, St. Elizabeth, Manchester, and Clarendon. These areas will experience the hurricane’s strongest winds, heaviest rainfall, and most destructive storm surges.
Even inland towns far from the coast will not be spared, as the storm’s slow speed will allow intense rainfall and wind damage to spread throughout the island’s southern interior.
For residents, preparation is no longer optional — it’s essential. Those in the predicted impact zones must stay sheltered, avoid flooded roads, and follow official government alerts until conditions improve.
In conclusion, as Hurricane Melissa closes in on Jamaica, the island’s southern and southwestern coasts face a perilous night ahead. If you have friends or family in Westmoreland, St. Elizabeth, Manchester, or Clarendon, urge them to take all warnings seriously and remain indoors until the all-clear is given.
Stay safe, stay alert, and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below — your experience and information could help others stay informed.
